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LES CAHIERS DE LA CHAIRE MODELISATION PROSPECTIVE
Working Paper n° 2012-01-04
Fiches argumentaires issues de l'étude "Conditions de l'émergence et impacts macroéconomiques du véhicule électrique en Europe et en Chine"
CIRED : Vogt-Schilb A., Bibas R., Cassen C., Guivarch C. et Hourcade J-C.
Observatoire : Ruet J., Lanckriet E., Kang R., Qi M., Yin Y., Bulcourt A. et Lee A.
Table des matières :
- Synthèse: Comment justifier un investissement pour le développement de l’électrification des vÉhicules?
- Le bénéfice pour les transports de la décarbonisation du mix électrique
- La disponibilité des véhicules électrifiés, une option réelle du point de vue sociétal
- Caveat méthodologique
- Véhicules électrifiés et compétitivité
- Politiques publiques chinoises et risques pour la compétitivité européenne
- Les bénéfices obtenus sont uniques dans le cas de l’électrification du parc automobile Télécharger
Working Paper n° 2011-03-03
Olivia RICCI and Sandrine SELOSSE, Global and regional potential for bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage
Among technological options to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage technology (BECCS) is gaining increasing attention. This option offers a unique opportunity for a net removal of atmospheric CO2 while it fulfills energy needs. This results analysis appears in line with the growing body of literature using bottom-up energy models and shows that BECCS has an important role to play in the future energy mix. Most of those studies focus on BECCS global potential whereas it is of interest to understand where this mitigation will be deployed. This key issue will strongly depends on regions’ biomass resources and storage sites endowment. The aim of this study is to assess the global and regional potential of BECCS up to 2050 and to compare it to the deployment of CCS in the power generation. This analysis is conducted with the global multiregional TIAM-FR optimization model. Investigated climate policy scenarios led to a considerable expansion of renewable energy and CCS and BECCS technologies in the power sector. CCS from fossil fuel is mainly deployed in fast developing countries, well endowed with coal and, BECCS is highly distributed in developing countries even if biomass resources are widely available in all regions. This response to carbon constraint is however dependent of the consideration of CO2 negative emissions and of the incentives and appropriate policies created by States. In addition, it required the development of a regulatory framework, sustained R,D&D and infrastructures investments. Télécharger
Working Paper n° 2011-02-02
Edi ASSOUMOU and Nadia MAIZI, Analysis of the effect of environmental policies on the allocation of natural gas accross end-use sectors in France, CMA, MINES ParisTech.
Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today’s energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world’s future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices. Télécharger
Working Paper n° 2011-01-01
Frédéric GHERSI, The Policy Path to Low-Carbon Society, CIRED.
This paper provides a survey of the policies and measures that are asso-ciated to low carbon societies in the recent literature, both peer-reviewed and “grey”. A first section focuses on carbon pricing, the policy measure most frequently represented. It starts by analysing the somewhat confusing use made of carbon pricing expertise in policy reports emanating from the French and the British governments, then reviews some modelling results on carbon pricing in a “second best” world, and concludes on the acknowledged limits of this central policy instrument. A second section lists an impressive collection of more focused policy instruments that are advocated in both governmental and non-governmental literature. It insists on the contrast between the high degree of precision of some of these policy proposals, and the absence of scientific assessment of their impacts, either from an environmental or an economic point of view. A third section concludes on the research agenda emerging from this hiatus between the large body of scientific literature devoted to carbon pricing, and the policy relevance of much more focused policy instruments. Télécharger
