The sessions will take place from the 28th of January 2021, and then each 4th Thursday of the month, from 10am to 12pm.

They will be accessible online (link sent to registered participants). NB: they will not be recorded and will be given in French, unless stated otherwise.

On a regular basis, the energy sector, identified as being responsible for at least two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, projects itself into scenarios that should allow it to achieve the objectives of limiting these emissions as advocated by the States. For many, it seems that the key to the problem is the search for a technological offer whose virtuous combination would limit the level of these emissions and, in this perspective, it is a question of integrating as many technologies based on so-called “renewable” resources as possible.

The creation of these scenarios, which shed light on the future by providing representations of the possible, often relies on modeling tools, beyond the simple juxtaposition of experts’ statements. However, even if these numerical tools have undeniable advantages for producing coherent images of the future, they do not guarantee a treatment of the energy system that takes into account its interdependencies with other sectors that are significant for climate issues, such as the economy, society, resources, land, water, materials, etc.

In the light of these challenges, in this seminar we propose to take a critical look at all the issues related to the integration of renewable energies with the aim of decarbonizing the French energy mix by the end of the century. To this end, we will propose to articulate our reflection through sessions, each targeted on a specific expertise and the studies associated with it. The objective of each of these sessions is to provide elements of understanding as to the plausibility and feasibility of each of the scenarios analyzed or existing scenarios by discussing:

  • the status of the underlying models according to whether they have a realistic, heuristic or normative claim, their structure, their scientific status
  • the technical, economic and political hypotheses used to develop scenarios
  • the aspects potentially taken into account: operation and flexibility of the systems, spatial issues, pace of implementation, land-use planning, lifestyles, financing costs and engineering, questions of governance , regulation and institutional conditions, externalities on other dimensions of a ‘sustainable development’ (IT, materials)

This analysis will enable us to understand the effective scope of the propositions in terms of technological choices for the energy mix of each of these studies (including the pace of deployment and replacement of production capacities, networks, adequate equipment). In the discussion, we will endeavour to systematically highlight those of the major questions that are driving the public debate in France to which they are likely to provide answers.

  • De 0 à 100 % renouvelable en France, oui mais à quelle condition ? | Nadia Maïzi, CMA MINES ParisTech PSL

  • État des lieux des scénarios en France : une mise à plat des hypothèses par la comparaison | Dominique Finon, CIRED

  • Autour des liens entre scénarios et débat public | Jean-Charles Hourcade, CIRED

Register for the event