The analysis of the structural determinants of the demand for energy services, integrating behaviour, lifestyles and growth expectations, in particular energy access policies in developing countries, will be continued. It will be combined with the study of the influence, in global scenarios, of mechanisms of mimicry or differentiation of consumption patterns (electricity, residential, mobility, diets) in developing countries (e.g. Brazil and India). The impact of income inequalities will also be addressed.
Nadia Maïzi Lead Author of Chapter 5 “Demand, Services and Social Aspects of Mitigation” of the forthcoming IPCC AR6 report [CMA].
Elaboration of demand dynamics and study of behaviours in non-developed or developing countries at the geographical scales: ALGERIA within the framework of CREAD/CMA collaborations (Naima Chabouni doctoral thesis) [CMA].
Study of the determinants of demand and impact of behaviours in smart building ( doctoral thesis of Rabab Akkouche and Cindy Umana-Lopez (Cifre WIT)) [CMA].
Integration of acceptability as a moderator of technological choices in prospective exercises (Mathilde Tessier doctoral thesis) [CMA].
École Polytechnique Master 1 internship [CMA] : What lifestyles would be compatible with decarbonation and SDGs? Drawing inspiration from the doctoral thesis of Thomas Le Gallic (French perimeter) and their coupling with the input/output model that François Briens developed in his doctoral thesis. Scope envisaged: global level. Depending on the difficulty of finding data, the reflection will be carried out around a few “representative”countries. References: Ariane Millot, Rémy Doudard, Thomas Le Gallic, François Briens, Edi Assoumou, et al.. France 2072 : Lifestyles at the core of carbon neutrality challenges. Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development, 2018. ⟨hal-01896027⟩
Measurements of SNBC2 ( IMACLIM-Fr) combining micro and macro simulation ( PhD thesis by E. Ravigné) [CIRED].
On-line simulator for evaluating the costs of carbon tax systems (J-C Hourcade/J Lefevre et al.) [CIRED].
Assessment of infrastructure deployment policies compatible with the spatial integration of the energy production mix at different scales [CMA]:
- Deployment and replicability of decarbonation solutions at the insular scale ( Norwegian and Italian islands): European project GIFT: Geographical Islands FlexibiliTy
- Energy policy at the scale of the SUD PACA region and circular economy (Doctoral thesis by Carlos Andrade, ADEME/SUD Region, followed by Schneider Electric Aix en Provence)
- Prospective tools for urban planners: development of a model coupling land allocation and deployment of urban forms with TIMES at the scale of Greater Bordeaux ( PhD thesis by Matthieu Denoux in collaboration with ANMA (urban planning agency))
- Coupling of TIMES and ANTARES: Electric France scale (Yacine Alimou in collaboration with RTE)
- Deployment of TIMES electricity at the European scale with a time disaggregation and a coupling with an EOD model: European project CLIM2POWER
NEDUM urban system model (coordinated by V. Viguié) [CIRED]:
- Impact of urban planning and transport policies according to income categories: application to Cape Town (collaboration with the World Bank) and Paris.
- Analysis of the impacts of property taxes and employment dynamics on urban sprawl and transport-related emissions (Paris)
- Évaluation des inégalités dans l’accès aux services écosystémiques à Paris (projet IDEFESE)
Suite model RES-IRF (L.G. Giraudet) [CIRED]
IMACLIM-R world: Evaluation of infrastructure investment needs (transport) and their determinants in 2°C scenarios (ex-post analysis Vivien Fisch PhD thesis) [CIRED].
Tensions over resources
Lessons from the shale oil and gas case can be used as a canvas and a reminder that the horizon and dynamics of this type of occurrence are generally much shorter than the conventional time frame of prospective. Attention will be paid to shale oil and gas while distinguishing between short, medium and long term impacts. Another challenge will be to address the impact on this competition of the hypothesis made on the modalities of carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Intégration des technologies CCS et H2 dans TIAM-FR (collaboration ETSAP) [CMA]
Follow-up of the H2 deployment project in the Manosque region (scientific advice) and integration into the TIMES SUD PACA model (Carlos Andrade PhD thesis) [CMA].
Coupled scenarios IMACLIM-R world/nexus land use model (NLU) (F. Leblanc) [CIRED]:
- Study of the trade-off between bioenergy and afforestation/reforestation: coupling with a compact climate model (Oscar2.2) to better represent carbon storage linked to changes in land use.
- Model development: biomass costs; international trade in liquid fuels
Integration of material recycling issues in IMACLIM-R France [CIRED] :
- Beginning of PhD thesis A. Texeira on 01/2020 (co-financing Ademe)
Initiation and management of transitions
We propose to explore both the technological solutions and the financial levers that will enable us to launch and drive the decarbonation process. The theoretical challenge is a better understanding of the transition mechanisms that need to be articulated on several time scales to trigger and then carry out such a transition.
The conditions for the penetration of low-carbon alternatives will continue to be analyzed here. The trajectories of the energy system as a whole will be explored. These elements of prospective analysis will be supported by a reflection based on an analogy with the physics of phase transitions in order to evaluate the actual state of the energy systems transition and the conditions of their bifurcation towards a low-carbon system.
They will be extended by an analysis of the micro-economic conditions of this technological deployment (tariff principles, design of capacity markets, deletion mechanisms, support for R&D). Emphasis will be placed on the risks of contradictory effects if these instruments are used jointly and on the conditions to be created to maximize their synergy. One of the issues at stake is multi-vector modeling integrating the feedbacks of supply prices on the level of demand by vector and taking into account the financing constraints weighing on each of the actors involved (state, region, city). This will fuel a critical discussion on the chronograms of system transformation (technological inertia, endogenous learning gains and costs of support policies). A specific focus will be put on the quantitative characterization of the existing uncertainty on the evolution of the cost of low carbon options (wind, photovoltaic, flexibility technologies) and a better understanding of the determinants of the evolution of real costs in Europe and in developing countries.
The issue of the power system and its convergences with other vectors will be addressed in a comprehensive manner to assess its legitimacy as a central topic of debate on future options. Thus, the results acquired on the conditions of deployment of intermittent renewable energies will be extended to assess the development scenarios of the infrastructures (transmission and distribution) associated with the power system according to the decentralized vs. centralized mode of generation. Particular attention will be paid to the following points: the voluntarist scenarios of electrification through uses (Electric Vehicle, Heat Pump…), the synergies between gas and electricity vectors, an explanation of the impacts of digitalization (decarbonation potential taking into account the energy consumed by the digital system, its leverage effect, its life cycle analysis including the energy materiality, and the search for the energy cost/benefit balance imposed by the second principle of thermodynamics…), the enhancement of existing infrastructures. The issues of social acceptability raised by these solutions will be integrated.
Analogy with phase transition: reflection on the notion of transition and the conditions favourable to the transition to a decarbonised “universe” (Ariane Millot’s PhD thesis).
Ongoing writing of several articles [CMA].
Transition Funding (J-C Hourcade Coord) [CIRED]:
- Assessing the public guarantee/carbon price linkage to reduce investment risk in low carbon projects
- Identification and quantification of uncertainties on low-carbon technologies (Secraet project)
Evaluation of NDCs and expansion of the IMACLIM-national network (coord. F. Ghersi/J.Lefevre) [CIRED]:
- DDPP-LAC project: finalization of IMACLIM-Argentina (collaboration with the Bariloche Foundation) (G. le Treut)
- World Bank project (Brazil): Evaluation of the implementation of the carbon price (IMACLIM-Br) (G.le Treut)
- Extension of the IMACLIM network to Africa (Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia…) (F. Ghersi et al.)
- Collective article on the macroeconomic issues in the BRICS in view of the AR6 (IPCC, chapter 4 coord F.Lecocq) + next workshop in Beijing (coord F. Ghersi)
- Collaboration with NIES (Japan): cooperation network around the AIM integrated model (Japan-Asia)
France: online simulator for assessing the costs of carbon tax systems (J-C Hourcade/J Lefevre) [CIRED].
Analysis of the decarbonization of the French electricity sector (Thesis Behrang Shirizadeh) [CIRED].
The range of public policy tools available for triggering the transition (carbon taxation, permit markets, property taxation, energy tariffs, infrastructure policies, technical standards) could then be broadened to include public guarantees, the conventional setting of a value for avoided carbon and the creation of long-term low-carbon assets to redirect savings that are currently reluctant to invest productively. We will then assess the macroeconomic effects on employment, income distribution, social accounts, industrial competitiveness and debt reduction of schemes incorporating the financial leverage effect and, in the European framework, a monetary easing policy based on the carbon value. As the ultimate impact depends on the ability of the businesses concerned to engage, this evaluation will include (on the basis of studies on the energy efficiency of buildings and on infrastructure investments in developing countries) the support by innovative business models of industrial sectors and the dissemination of knowledge. One of the challenges is to couple the reflection on innovative financing systems with that of a greater supply of “low carbon” projects, including for example through mechanisms for aggregating loans of the same amount.
This research axis will integrate the need to best adapt technological choices to local conditions as well as policy incentives and support mechanisms to the macro-economic and budgetary constraints of countries.
The objective of this research operation is to analyze :
- The technical and economic conditions of the different temperature stabilization objectives, in particular the 2°C objective and the emission profiles leading to transient overshoot or higher stabilization levels;
- The combinations of instruments (taxes, carbon markets, infrastructure policies, sectoral agreements, carbon finance, macroeconomic policies) allowing to trigger “low carbon” investment choices while smoothing transition costs;
- The potential of an agreement on a “social cost of carbon” and the creation of carbon assets likely to circumvent these difficulties in the face of the impasses of a “burden sharing” type logic, which prevailed after Kyoto, to resolve climate/development issues.
The conduct of this operation was strongly influenced by the production of materials for the COP21 held in Paris at the end of 2015. Here the Chair strengthened its integration into international networks of expertise/decision-making interfaces (EMF, IAMC). It will continue its practice of organizing “side events” at the Conferences of the Parties and will strengthen its contributions to the LCS-RNet network, which brings together the G8 countries and the major emerging countries.
The regional and international scenarios concern: the world, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Brazil, China, India; France and, more locally, Reunion Island, the PACA and Normandy regions in France.
Deployment of regional and international scenarios [CMA] :
- Countries: France, Algeria, Africa
- Islands: islands in Norway and Italy, Mauritius and Rodrigues
- Region: SUD PACA, Greater Bordeaux
Project H2020 Navigate: development of a new generation of scenarios for assessing climate policies on a global scale (coord. C. Guivarch) [CIRED]:
- Development of tools for the analysis of a set of scenarios
- Analyse et développement de la représentation des changements structurels dans les IAMs
- Development of low energy demand and lifestyle change scenarios
- Work on the integration of climate change damage into scenarios
Organization of the 4th edition of the International Summer School on Environmental Economic Modeling at CIRED (6-10 July, theme: A just transition to net zero emissions societies)
Organization of the 2nd International Summer School on “Prospective Modeling and Energy Transition” at CMA on the theme: ” Vulnerabilities of territories, including: specific geographical features, resource scarcity, technical systems requirements, geopolitical issues, and human and social factors ” (date to be determined in light of the evolution of the current international health crisis)
About our Research Axis :
The research operations that we undertake are distributed in the continuation of the axes previously investigated. Their content has been updated to reformulate old questions and to integrate new questions according to the changing economic context and the findings derived from previous work. All of them contribute to providing the scientific basis for public deliberation on the mutations implied by the challenges of sustainable development, and for “business models” supporting a shift towards a low-carbon society in an open economy. Each of the research operations is part of the “portfolio of skills” of the Chair’s teams and their relative weight may vary according to the breakthroughs made, the difficulties encountered, the international scientific debates and the partners’ requests. Increased attention will be paid to three cross-cutting dimensions:
The spatial dimension to shed light on ‘multi-scale’ problems of any kind: (i) constraints to the transformation of energy systems towards increasingly diffuse and renewable modes; or (ii) interactions and links between energy transport infrastructures, urban forms, land use planning and the deployment of low-carbon mobilities carrying increasingly confined energy services.
The influence of controversies, uncertainties and various forms of risk on the attitudes and decisions of private and public actors, as elements that block the initiation of transitions and the integration of various forms of risk and uncertainty into the public policy agenda.
The various forms of inequality (income, access to energy services, access to information and basic infrastructure, access to financing) both within and between countries, as a determinant of ongoing dynamics and conditions for inclusive growth.