Working Paper n° 2018-02-28
Florian LEBLANC, Long-term macroeconomic impact of US unconventional Oil and Gas production : a general equilibrium perspective
The shale gas and oil revolution in the United States has given hope of a new source of energy abundance for countries rich in these resources. In Europe in particular, several countries have undertook explorations with the idea of supporting economic growth and industrial competitiveness by producing cheaper energy. In this article, we conduct a prospective analysis of the long-term economic impact of shale oil and gas production in the United States. First, we quantify the limits of GDP increases due to technical inertia within the economy, separating the effect on oil and gas markets. In a second step, we analyze policies aiming at supporting competitiveness of highly exporting industries. Within the general equilibrium Imaclim-R model, when it comes to improve wellfare with the production of unconventionnal resource, we highlight a trade-off between industrial competitiveness on one hand, and global employment in the economy on the other hand.
Working Paper n° 2018-01-27
Gaëlle LE TREUT, A proposal for assessing inventories of embodied emissions in trade and consumption at the country scale: an application to the French case
In United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change territorial-based inventories, the CO2 emissions embodied in international trade are not assessed while they represent a lever to control carbon leakage and understand competitiveness concerns. Accounting these emissions, and therefore accounting consumption-based emissions, is not obvious. In the literature, dierent methods exist to evaluate alternative emissions inventories. However, methods are data-intensive and models mainly rely on existing global databases with balanced bilateral trade flows. The control of these databases and the articulation with country-scale prospective models remain dicult. This paper proposes a method based on the Input-Output analysis, at a given year, to evaluate contrasted emissions inventories for single country relying on national hybrid database in both volume and in monetary flows. Notwithstanding, it embarks exogenous information on major international partners. By applying the methodological proposal on the French case, the paper provides original insights on the key drivers of emissions. We show that consumptionbased emissions are much higher than production-based emissions in France, and, we study the drivers of emissions embodied in household consumptions with sectoral distribution. We analyse the sensitivity to results of the sectoral granularity of the database. The original idea of this method is to allow an easy articulation with the IMACLIM-France CGE model to analyse how French climate policies impacts macroeconomic situation, sectoral competitiveness and emissions -regarding dierent scopes for inventories.
Working Paper n° 2017-02-26
Edi ASSOUMOU, Frédéric GHERSI, Jean Charles HOURCADE, Jun LI, Nadia MAÏZI and Sandrine SELOSSE, Reconciling top-down and bottom-up energy/economy models: a case of TIAM-FR and IMACLIM-R
Recent global economic and environmental forecasts consistently show a trend of continuous decline in natural resources, degradation of environmental quality, increasing vulnerability of economic growth as a result of environmental stress, competition for land and natural resources, soaring energy prices and climate change. These forecasts partly rest on significant efforts by the scientific community over the past three decades to improve knowledge of the interactions between economic growth and the environment; particularly modelling methods have developed to become increasingly applied to the assessment of the environmental and economic consequences of various energy demand and greenhouse gas policies. However, the significantly diverging viewpoints of models developed by energy engineers, or ‘bottom-up’ (BU) models, and those developed by economists, or ‘top-down’ (TD) models, hinder effective dialogue and mutual understanding between researchers from different academic backgrounds. The purpose of this paper is to promote a constructive dialogue between modellers from each side of the modelling paradigms, based on a comparative critique of the BU TIAM-FR model and the TD IMACLIM-R model. The comparison terms extend from the theoretical foundations of each model to their structure and specifications, and applicability to policy assessment. Preliminary numerical simulations are developed to demonstrate the relevance of linking the two models, while the technical challenges and methodological limitations of coupled simulations are addressed.
Working Paper n° 2017-01-25
Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, The decarbonized pathways of post-Paris climate policy
The historic climate agreement adopted by all countries in December 2015 marks a turning point towards a decarbonized world. Applying a long-term prospective approach, and more precisely the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR, we investigate different greenhouse gas emissions mitigation trajectories to discuss these pathways and the corresponding technological solutions in global and regional perspectives. The contribution to GHG mitigation varies according to regions’ development; as the technological choices regarding climate constraints and the evolution of the energy system. Climate constraints tending toward a 2°C objective involve significant decarbonization of the power system with considerable investments in renewable energies in the lower and higher constraints, as well as in carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), notably bio-energy and CCS (BECCS). CCS technologies start to be installed when climate constraints are high (2°C) but not in scenarios expressing national pledges. It is interesting to note that in case of a ban on BECCS, the latter is compensated not by a higher development of fossil CCS technologies, but by an increase in renewable energies.
Working Paper n° 2016-06-24
Gaëlle LE TREUT and Emmanuel COMBET, Climate policy design and the competitiveness of the French industry: A computable general equilibrium analysis
The paper proposes a method to keep benefits from both sectorial and general equilibrium analysis. This method has originally been developed to build a hybrid energy-economy Input-Output Table (IOT) at a regional scale but it can be apply for any quantity flows. The approach consists in combining economic and physical data from sectors analysis with monetary input-output data from national accounts within a consistent and comprehensive « hybrid » accounting system. It goes beyond previous disaggregation techniques only based on economic data. We illustrate the procedure with French data, and we analyse the effects of a unilateral French carbon tax reform using a country-scale CGE model, IMACLIM-S. The results show that keeping aggregated heterogeneous industrial sectors can be misleading when exploring distributive consequences of a carbon price policy…
Working Paper n° 2016-05-23
Julien LEFEVRE, A description of the IMACLIM-BR model: a modeling framework to assess climate and energy policy in Brazil
The Imaclim modeling approach has been developed at CIRED since the early 90s. At the core of the blueprint has been the objective to build hybrid modeling architectures to articulate energy system and economy-wide representations to explore energy-climate-economy futures. Imaclim-BR is a hybrid CGE modeling platform of the Brazilian economy specifically designed to build consistent projections of the energy-GHG emissions-economy system in Brazil over the medium to long term. It makes it especially possible to assess the macroeconomic implications of price or quantity-based carbon and energy policy. This working paper provides a full description of the IMACLIM-BR model. Section 2 characterizes the model in a compact format with its key equations in order to highlight its main specifics. Section 3 provides a comprehensive description and formulary of the central model version. Section 4 details the specifics of two expanded versions.
Working Paper n° 2016-04-22
Jules SCHERS, Frédéric GHERSI and Franck LECOCQ, Modelling climate mitigation and economic growth in relation to employment and skills in South Africa
Our paper deals with the interaction between South Africa’s carbon mitigation and employment challenges. We use IMACLIM-SA, an open-economy, ‘hybrid’ CGE model that projects the economy to 2035, disaggregated in 10 sectors and 5 household classes. Our model has low-, medium- and high-skill labour markets with equilibrium unemployment. We highlight problems with using a standard definition of skills as categories of educational attainment and propose three research avenues to improve modelling of skills. We then analyse a carbon tax with 5 revenue recycling options and a “positional” definition of educational attainment. A tax of 100 Rand/tCO2 recycled in sales tax cuts induces GDP and employment gains, but does not reduce inequality. A higher tax is needed to achieve South Africa’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the COP21. Additionally, we find that recycling carbon tax proceeds into investment in skills would already be justified if it induces a slight productivity improvement.
Working Paper n° 2016-03-21
Seungwoo KANG, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, Methodological long-term analysis of global bioenergy potential
This report presents the methodology investigated in order to make more suitable and relevant the representation of bioenergy resources in the long term bottom up optimization model, TIAM-FR. Indeed, the current simplified representation is not suitable for distinguish different use for each proper bioenergy source. Furthermore, considering the important role of global bioenergy trade in energy system particularly for projecting future energy system, disaggregation of these resources appears as an essential requirement. In this study, based on the complementary purpose of improving the description of the bioenergy chain as well as the necessity of re-estimation of potentials, we focused on development of energy crops and woody biomass chains rather than Industrial wastes, municipal wastes, and landfill gas, which are not currently being traded intra regions for energy uses. In the case of energy crops, otherwise, the higher disaggregation will allow apply crop-specific biofuel policies as limiting the use of edible sources for energy purpose to avoid eventual conflicts with food security issues.